[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132029 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-132230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132029Z - 132230Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MN/NRN WI/WRN UPPER
MI THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. 

SURFACE HEATING BETWEEN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AREA AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN MN HAS
RESULTED IN REGION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN WI INTO WRN
UPPER MI. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15C AT 500MB/ HAS MINIMIZED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND IS ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NWRN/NRN WI. AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EXTENDS WWD INTO WRN
MN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF MS RIVER. STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KT
COMBINED WITH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7-8 KFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46839104 46758966 46788842 46108803 45318814 45138914
45099025 45209156 45429392 46029400 46699391 

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