[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132354 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NW MO AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...

VALID 132354Z - 140100Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST
HOUR...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF REINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WW 461
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 01Z.

SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB. EARLIER
INTENSE SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER
SE NEB HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO SW IA. OTHER
HIGHER BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING
FARTHER W ACROSS N CNTRL KS IS TAPPING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS EXPERIENCED
LIMITED RECOVERY IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH LACK OF
LARGER SCALE FORCING AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOUNDARY
LAYER PROCESSES WILL BE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP NEXT HOUR
OR SO AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NE KS/NW
MO...LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

..DIAL.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40579722 40879615 41429585 41149452 39739459 39209553
39569688 

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