[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131901 
MIZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 459...

VALID 131901Z - 132030Z

CONTINUE WW. 

AT 1850Z...BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS EXTENDED FROM NRN LAKE MI SEWD TO GRATIOT COUNTY IN
CENTRAL LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF LOWER MI AND SAGINAW BAY REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE 18Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND
LATEST VAD WIND FROM THE AREA SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH
ONGOING BAND OF STORMS. 

TO THE WEST...CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF SUBSYNOPTIC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL WI SHORELINE. TRENDS
SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
LAKE MI INTO WRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE ACROSS MOST OF WRN AND ESPECIALLY SWRN LOWER MI TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41768301 41778647 45698620 45688248 

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