[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131857 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-132100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...SRN AR...FAR NRN LA...FAR WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131857Z - 132100Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NE TX AND SRN AR WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR
HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS N TX EXTENDING
EWD INTO SRN AR. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS NE TX
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND NEW CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS VERY UNSTABLE
AIR LOCATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500
J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AR. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO HAVE A HAIL THREAT BECAUSE
OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

32669159 32619222 32319515 32889577 33629575 33939456
34309155 34299037 33778989 32939017 

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