[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131946 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO AND FAR SW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131946Z - 132145Z

ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEB-KS STATE LINE
IN SE NEB WILL CONTINUE EWD AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY INITIATE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN
IA INTO SE NEB. A DRYLINE IS PRESENT FROM EAST OF HASTINGS EXTENDING
SWWD INTO NW KS. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE IN
AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
ERN NEB. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
NEB-KS STATE LINE. SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S F IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO
RIVER. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOSCALE MID-LEVEL JET OF 45 KT
ACROSS SE NEB AND THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR...MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F AND
500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C ARE CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS COMBINED WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

40639682 40719505 40629425 40489379 40069356 39499374
39239487 39259623 39349728 39759755 40329751