[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130233 
WIZ000-MNZ000-130430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...WRN AND CENTRAL OK...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...

VALID 130233Z - 130430Z

PORTIONS OF WW 448 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF WW
448 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED.

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS AS IT MOVES ENEWD AROUND 45 KTS FROM NORTH OF ABI/SW OF SPS INTO
THE SERN PORTION OF WW 448 JACK/WISE AND CLAY COUNTIES BY AROUND
04Z. STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND MINIMAL
INHIBITION NOTED ON THE FWD SOUNDING...SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND 04Z INTO
NCENTRAL TX WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE 04Z.


FARTHER NORTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INTERSECTING A OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE AND NEW STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN THIS
AREA. NWD PROGRESS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT WHERE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE NWD INTO ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED FOR QUITE SOME TIME THIS EVENING OVER
WRN OK IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
CONTINUING AS IT MOVES INTO WW 454. CONVECTION MOVING ESEWD OUT OF
CENTRAL KS MAY BACKBUILD SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THUS THIS AREA MAY AS WELL NEED TO BE PUT INTO A REPLACEMENT
SEVERE WW BEFORE 04Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152
45269098 44239216 

WWWW