[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130210 
WIZ000-MNZ000-130415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130210Z - 130415Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSSIBLY
EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ENEWD INTO NWRN WI. AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES ABOVE REMNANT COLD DOME. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
FOR A WW. 

WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EWD FROM ERN SD THROUGH MN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ELEVATED UNCAPPED MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AID IN CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WCENTRAL INTO ECENTRAL MN/NWRN WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH ONLY 45-50 KTS AT MID LEVELS
ATOP 25-30 SWLY KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152
45269098 44239216 

WWWW