[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122200 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446...

VALID 122200Z - 122330Z

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL
AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.

21Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW WSW OF CNK WITH ATTENDANT
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO S-CNTRL KS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN
NEB...EXTENDING FROM NRN NUCKOLLS COUNTY EWD ACROSS NRN GAGE COUNTY
INTO NEMAHA COUNTY. KUEX/KOAX VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES N OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CLAY...SALINE AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THOUGH
THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
REFLECTIVITY LOOPS INDICATE A SWD PUSH TO COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM ONGOING STORMS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE OR TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE
INCREASING COLD POOL.

AIRMASS TO THE S ACROSS N-CNTRL KS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN 0-6KM SHEAR TO 35-40KTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
APPEAR LIKELY SWD ALONG DRYLINE...AS WELL AS FARTHER NW WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW OVER S-CNTRL
NEB/FAR N-CNTRL KS. ASIDE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL...BACKED NATURE OF
SURFACE WINDS S OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...N OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD
ALONG DRYLINE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

42769683 42729289 38229553 38219922 

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