[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122136 
MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN/ERN KS AND SWRN/WRN
MO...INCLUDING KANSAS CITY METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

VALID 122136Z - 122300Z

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SERN KS/NERN
OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR ERN
KS INTO WRN MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SERN KS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE 200/35-40 KT THROUGH 00Z. THE KS/MO BORDER LIES ON THE ERN
EDGE OF MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MLCAPE ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER IS AROUND
2000 J/KG. AIR MASS REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MO.

EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT OF WW 449 INTO
FAR W-CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 2230-2300Z. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUPERCELLS...PER LATEST SGF VAD WIND
PROFILE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. CURRENT
NNEWD STORM MOTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUSIVE FOR TORNADOES...
BUT RIGHT TURNING MEMBERS MAY ENHANCE SRH AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.

PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
FAR ERN KS/WRN MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37809391 36579302 36169341 36189415 36569518 36649573
37549569 38289554 40589412 40579265 38779364 

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