[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122235 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN SD...AND FAR WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122235Z - 130100Z

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE ENEWD AT 20-25
KT ACROSS NERN SD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEPARATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NERN SD WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST
UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. 

THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SOUTH OF
VERTICAL STACKED SYSTEM OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AXIS/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS SD. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C AT
500MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL
SD INTO FAR WRN MN. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WBZ
HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MAY
OCCUR GIVEN EFFECTIVE VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /20-25F/. INTENSITY OF CELLS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN
THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45520129 45989946 46029751 46049619 45279590 44979673
44879785 44439915 44320010 44350100 44820156 

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