[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121853 
KSZ000-NEZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE KS...FAR SRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446...

VALID 121853Z - 122100Z

CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS ACROSS NRN KS AND FAR SRN NEB.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
OMAHA AREA ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NCNTRL KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
NEW CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING IN SRN NEB SOUTH OF HASTINGS. THIS
COINCIDES WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SHOWN ON
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CHARTS. THE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 21Z. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT
TOP SHOWS 40 KT AT 500 MB WITH VEERED WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB.
THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN NEB AND NCNTRL
KS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT FORM AND MOVE INTO THE
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR SE NEB AND NE KS.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39599987 40059950 40399881 40349771 40129666 39749562
39299548 38729590 38599639 38799706 39069852 39129937
39169972 

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