[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121818 
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN GA...SWRN NC...AND SC EXCEPT NERN PORTION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121818Z - 122015Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PULSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE MTNS OF SWRN NC SOUTH AND SEWD ACROSS SC AND
ERN/NERN GA. IF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

AT 18Z...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30 NE AVL TO 15 S CLT
TO FLO TO CRE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE COAST
TO CHS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF
SWRN NC/FAR WRN SC...WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAX
HEATING PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH WET MICROBURSTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS NOT VERY
PRONOUNCED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED ACROSS CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

34488053 35168169 35618252 35438303 35168349 34628388
34078357 33298318 32898271 32418183 32248139 32388068
32617996 33387889 

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