[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122008 
TXZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122008Z - 122215Z

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WEST TX. SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. A NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM JUST EAST OF
LUBBOCK TO NEAR MIDLAND AND INTO BIG BEND NP. A DISTURBANCE IS
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SERN NM AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED ACROSS FAR
WEST TX AND WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS. WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30250196 29970284 30240363 30660368 31010321 31130307
31740211 33020134 32919982 31580036 30610124