[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121812 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...SRN KS AND NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121812Z - 122015Z

STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 21Z EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
OK...SRN KS AND NW TX. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS WCNTRL KS WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. A STRONG VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS SW KS AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AND THE WEAKENING CAP COMBINED WITH
THE EXTREME INSTABILITY BY 21Z SHOULD RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FIRST ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND THEN FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS OK AND NW TX.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION WHICH GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 KT ACROSS OK AND SRN KS
IS CREATING STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WILL BECOME ENHANCED
AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED
SFC FLOW OVER NRN OK...SRN KS AND CNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...

34509958 35899887 37259841 38059819 38439787 38599725
38549587 38189538 37049546 35529613 33789714 33099777
32959887 33239969 33719984 

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