[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121548 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-121815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121548Z - 121815Z

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN IND AND MUCH
OF KY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  

LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NEAR ELONGATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL OH WSWWD ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER INTO SRN MO. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 15Z...AND
CIN IS MINIMAL. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT PER LOUISVILLE VAD
AND REGIONAL ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY FAVOR CONTINUATION OF MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS...WITH
REGENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF
STRONGER COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...EMBEDDED
STRONG CORES WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND
MUCH OF KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  

IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

37578843 38408767 38938649 39028557 39128440 38718385
38038274 37248278 36918375 37008552 36838756 36808877
36918901 37278883 

WWWW