[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121638 
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-121845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SRN MO...FAR NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121638Z - 121845Z

SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN AR AND SRN MO WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST
ACROSS NE OK...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-AFTERNOON
WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN
MO. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
AR AND NE OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A
BAND OF PVA IS CAUSING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AR AND NE OK
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 35 KT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36719266 36919116 37168999 37028946 36378950 35938975
35439072 35219323 35439470 36039552 36439570 36909535
36789389 

WWWW