[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121530 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-121730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/ERN KS/SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121530Z - 121730Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS...SE NEB AND SRN MO WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE FROM SE NEB
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN KS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS ERN KS INTO SRN AND ERN MO. A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWD THROUGH
ERN KS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT WITH
THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWING 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH THE
ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED ATTM....SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE REACHING 4500 TO 5500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF ERN KS
AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS.

IN ADDITION...THE 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER WRN OK IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD INTO ERN KS WHERE SFC WIND ARE BACKED.  THIS
WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A TORNADO
THREAT DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN KS AND SW MO THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

38229196 37919157 37669122 37219140 36869266 37099476
38009646 38789720 39919768 40489766 40999692 41099620
40669546 39649486 38959369 

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