[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120434 
MOZ000-KSZ000-120630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 120434Z - 120630Z

POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NWRN MO/FAR NERN KS HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE LATITUDINALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH LEADING
EDGE OF COMPLEX FROM 30SE P35 TO 20SE STJ TO JUST E OF TOP. AT THE
SAME TIME...REGIONAL PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER NETWORKS INDICATE THAT
SWLY LLJ HAS INTENSIFIED TO 30-35KTS FROM CNTRL/ERN OK NEWD ACROSS
ERN KS INTO NWRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM INFLOW REGION OF
SYSTEM INDICATE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS
STRONG WITHIN THIS INFLOW REGION...STRONG ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL IS LIKELY ALLOWING COMPLEX TO UTILIZE A
GOOD SHARE OF THIS INSTABILITY.

OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EWD OR SEWD...HOWEVER WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AND/OR SLOW MOVING STORMS...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ALONG SYSTEM TRACK WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3
INCHES/HOUR. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

39349536 39849487 40189392 40029310 39469306 39129380
38939479 

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