[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120304 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 440...

VALID 120304Z - 120400Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL EXISTS ALONG WARM FRONT.
CONTINUE WW.

CHICAGO RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER PORTIONS OVER NRN
IL...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME EVIDENT IN
REGIONAL VWPS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR DBQ TO S OF RFD TO N OF LAF AS OF
02Z. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS S OF WARM FRONT STILL INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500
J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND 100-250 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH...RESPECTIVELY.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW
MAY BE NECESSARY AT 04Z.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

43169088 43178874 41178789 41169005 

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