[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120350 
TXZ000-120515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

VALID 120350Z - 120515Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NOLAN/COKE COUNTY BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY BY AROUND 05Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE ABI VICINITY WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2
INCHES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF 1-20 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER THE
JONES/MITCHELL/COKE COUNTY BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SAMPLED
BY REGIONAL VWP/S WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE INTO
THIS STORM AN OFFSETTING INCREASING CINH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF ABI SHOULD ALSO
MAINTAIN IT/S PRESENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED
BEHIND THE CONVECTION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ATOP OF THE COLD POOL
OVER NWRN TX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31860165 32770101 33849982 33839856 33149860 31969916
31550030 

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