[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120156 
NCZ000-VAZ000-120330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442...

VALID 120156Z - 120330Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD
AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR
A ROW OR TWO COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW 442...BUT LIMITED DURATION OF THE
THREAT DUE TO CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANOTHER WW
IN THIS AREA.

LATEST VWP DATA FROM BLACKSBURG VA INDICATES A 40 KT NWLY LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAINTAINING
CONVECTIVE LINE AND INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD
AROUND 40 KTS INTO PARTS OF ERN NC. SLOWLY INCREASING CINH WILL
ALLOW FOR A GENERAL DECREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF WW 442 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
MOVES SEWD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NERN NC. THIS CELL WILL
HAVE SOME ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BUT AS WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...THE
TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS STORM SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 03Z
WHERE THERE WERE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

35637953 35847937 35907843 36117819 36567792 36507594
35117623 34917808 35057954 

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