[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112256 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112256Z - 120030Z

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 2247Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
STEPHENSON AND JO DAVIESS COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN IL AS WELL AS
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FAR SWRN WI. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N
OF DBQ TO NEAR RFD TO SW OF CGX. LOCAL DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG. MOREOVER...BACKED NEAR SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH 30-35KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG
AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF
100-200 M2/S2 ARE CO-LOCATED WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF
600-800M.

A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

43109087 41579041 40548736 42228783 

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