[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112242 
KSZ000-OKZ000-120015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112242Z - 120015Z

TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

AS OF 2230Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING LINE OF
CUMULUS FROM COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO BLAINE
AND KINGFISHER COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL/CNTRL OK. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN ZONE OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE
DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO E OF
CSM AS OF 22Z. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH AXIS OF 70-75F
DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35589859 37879689 37919533 35599693 

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