[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112218 
OKZ000-TXZ000-112345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112218Z - 112345Z

TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. IF STORMS
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS 2205Z....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED FIELD OF TCU
FROM WILBARGER/BAYLOR COUNTIES SWWD INTO KENT/FISHER/SCURRY COUNTIES
OF WRN TX. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING E OF WEAK
DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM W OF FSI SWWD TO E OF
MAF AS OF 22Z. AIRMASS E OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR
NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK
ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. 

CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
BOUNDARY WITH 30-35KTS IN THE 5-7KM LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32110219 34729991 34809777 32140000 

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