[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101646 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-101815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MO....SRN/CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101646Z - 101815Z

TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND
SWRN/CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
CURRENTLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES GIVEN VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOW LFC. A WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN
THE WAKE OF LARGE RAIN SHIELD NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN
IL. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OF TROPICAL/SRN
STREAM ORIGIN WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
OZARKS. COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AND ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE...SHOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF RAIN SHIELD OVER IL HAS
LOCALLY BACKED FLOW IN THIS AREA AND AREA PROFILER DATA APPEARS TO
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS ACTIVITY
INCREASES AND TAPS INTO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE.

..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

37539095 38439436 39589493 40259463 40599373 40379246
40149009 39938784 38618814 

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