[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100658 
TXZ000-100830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 100658Z - 100830Z

THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX
 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE
NECESSARY...UNLESS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE IS NOTED.

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SHIFTING NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX ATTM.  THERE WAS A BRIEF LULL
IN CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
NERN TX.  SINCE 06 UTC...HOWEVER...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN
PARTS OF CNTRL TX BETWEEN COLLEGE STATION AND KILLEEN AHEAD OF THE
UPSTREAM IMPULSE.  

THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS SITUATED FROM
THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...SO AS TSTMS MOVE
NWD INTO NCNTRL TX THEY MAY TEND TO DIMINISH.  HOWEVER... THERE
SEEMS TO BE A TREND FOR TSTMS TO INTENSIFY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND
NEAR BRENHAM AND FAYETTE (K11R/K3T5) WITH STORMS MOVING NWD. 

RUC2 PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
30-35 KTS WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 
AREA VWPS.  THUS...ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO. 
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY AUSTIN TO WACO
EWD TO HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY
AXIS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISTURBANCE STILL TO
PASS THROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTMS FORMING FARTHER SOUTH IN AREAS
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR HOUSTON.

..RACY.. 06/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29339778 30709742 31989708 32099639 31869562 30069552
29479564 

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