[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082224 
NEZ000-090030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW...S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 409...

VALID 082224Z - 090030Z

CONTINUE WW.

INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED
BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 50
KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE...WHICH LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW REGIME NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LIFT IN
CAPPING LAYER SHOULD  WEAKEN INHIBITION...ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG... SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION IN INITIAL ACTIVITY... BEFORE CONVECTION MERGES/EVOLVES
INTO LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SATEM.  ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF SHARP FRONTAL ZONE...BUT PRIMARY THREATS
APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...EVENTUALLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

..KERR.. 06/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

41130158 41440100 41749892 40639858 40349907 40160009
40030139 40390188 

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