[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082131 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SERN CO/ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082131Z - 082330Z

...TSTMS WILL POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 50-60 DEGREES ACROSS SE
CO/ERN NM RESULTING IN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 10 C/KM. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT VCNTY ITR/LAA. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEY
WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR
OUTFLOW OR OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNBURST WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP SUSTAIN STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
INTO THE EVENING.

..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

32450571 33250576 35640533 37730414 39900111 39970040
39139982 36480311 33090406 32180455