[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080246 
MNZ000-SDZ000-080445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080246Z - 080445Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ACTIVITY FROM
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD INTO THE BRAINERD MN AREA APPEARS TO BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT...BUT MAY BE JUST BEHIND FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT. OTHER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA...TO THE WEST OF WATERTOWN...APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER TO
THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WHICH PERSISTS ABOVE FRONTAL
INVERSION LAYER...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO
LIFT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO.

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE BEEN
STABILIZED WITH LOW-LEVEL COOLING.  HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FORCING PARCELS TO
SATURATION AND LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IN THE 850 TO 700 MB
LAYER...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.

..KERR.. 06/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

44419848 45199724 45599534 45659445 44969376 44299484
43439712 43659861 

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