[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080008 
WIZ000-MNZ000-080215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE MN...NW WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406...

VALID 080008Z - 080215Z

SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...BUT INTENSE NEW CONVECTION
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR/SOUTH OF
DULUTH INTO AREAS WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS.

AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO
BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR INTENSE CELL NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.  STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS HIGH LEVEL JET PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF LARGE-SCALE GREAT
LAKES RIDGE.

COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA NOW APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR ANY NEW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
TIMING FOR THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG CAPPING.
 HOWEVER...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY
THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY WEAKEN
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  GIVEN STRENGTH
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000
TO 3000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

45149516 46229400 47129313 46959239 46129194 45219273
44539373 44389515 

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