[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080542 
WIZ000-MNZ000-080645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN MN AND WCNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080542Z - 080645Z

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SWRN MN SINCE 04Z.  IF THEY
MAINTAIN INTENSITY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM INTO WCNTRL WI.
 

AREA PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS INCREASED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN AND MAY BE AIDING IN
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WCNTRL MN.  USING A COMBINATION OF
RUC2/ETAKF SOUNDINGS...TSTMS APPEAR TO BE ROOTED JUST BELOW 700 MB. 
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND MUCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HAIL.  HOWEVER...RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 30-35 KTS...
ARE REACHING THE GROUND.  RECENT STORM REPORT INDICATES NEAR 60 MPH
WINDS BEING OBSERVED.

TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE BEING FED FROM PARCELS UPSTREAM AND MAY
MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND
PERHAPS INTO WCNTRL WI IN A FEW HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
FAR EAST THIS TSTMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE...GIVEN THE INCREASED CAP
TOWARD THE MS RVR.

..RACY.. 06/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45459483 45629076 44889037 43999055 43919146 44159506 

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