[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072229 
NEZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072229Z - 080030Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

WITH HEATING TO AROUND 100F AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL
RIDGE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED TO THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST OF AINSWORTH NEB.  DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...PERHAPS AIDED
BY FORCING ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS.  

THOUGH ACTIVITY IS HIGH BASED IN VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY...LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THIS LAYER IS SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  THIS
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-50F TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS.


LACK OF UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MAY LIMIT THREAT WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ON
NOSE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET. ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THIS JET MAY MAINTAIN ACTIVITY
BEYOND DARK...POSSIBLY AIDING EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..KERR.. 06/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

41770203 42330112 42590009 42599907 41729826 41209904
41310095 41410170 

WWWW