[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072137 
MNZ000-WIZ000-072330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NE MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072137Z - 072330Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SOME INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN BAND ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.  MODIFICATION OF CAP BY MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET...AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
 AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN STRONG CAP NEXT FEW
HOURS... CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG.  INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
ONGOING STRONGER DEVELOPMENT...NEAR LAKE BREEZE...NEAR/NORTH OF
DULUTH.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADO.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 06/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

46109526 46979432 48449309 47949068 46769138 46079263
45879394 

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