[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072042 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...SERN CO...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072042Z - 072245Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS PSBL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM PARTS OF SERN NM AND SERN CO NEWD
ACROSS NWRN KS AND INTO SWRN NEB.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND SRR AND
WEST OF ROW...AS WELL AS INVOF TAD IN SERN CO. VERY HOT AND WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 40F AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ROOTED BETWEEN 600-500MB. GIVEN VERY DRY AND
DEEP SUB CLOUD LAYER AND RESULTANT HIGH DCAPE... A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. OUTFLOW FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY
DRIFT EAST INTO GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE DRYLINE AND
AID ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A FEW MORE HOURS.

INTENSE HEATING WAS ALSO ERODING THE CAP OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB
WHERE DRYLINE COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT WILL EVOLVE OVR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...COUPLED WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

..CARBIN.. 06/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

32720426 32580518 33480589 36150562 37320452 38340316
39210282 39970261 40560179 40620101 40210033 39660015
37160204 35220437