[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071912 
TXZ000-072145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071912Z - 072145Z

SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS E-CENTRAL TX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE 190/30-35 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGEST
CORES WILL CONTINUE.

AT 19Z...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS LEON AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES IN E-CENTRAL TX...MOVING STEADILY NWD IN UNIFORM
DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW REGIME OF 20-25 KT. MESOSCALE COLD POOLS
ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME FASTER PROPAGATIONAL
MOTION...SUGGESTING A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY / 100MB MLCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG / AND NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MODERATE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 11-12 KFT SUGGEST
HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO STRONGEST CORES. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN VCT AND AUS MAY ALSO BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IF STORM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOLS
CAN DEVELOP.

..BANACOS.. 06/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

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