[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062018 
SDZ000-NEZ000-062215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062018Z - 062215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM FAR WRN SD SWD INTO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE.
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT OVER THE AREA MAY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW. 

DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CU WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO THE FAR
WRN NEB PANHANDLE. SEVERAL BULGES ON THE DRYLINE...ONE TO THE WEST
OF BFF...AND ANOTHER TO THE SW OF RAP...ARE LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
INITIATION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA SUGGEST THAT AROUND 500-1000 J/KG EXIST ABOVE THE VERY DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME
LINEARLY ORGANIZED. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL LOOKS VERY SMALL
CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER/HIGH BASED NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION.

..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41110401 43000398 44890402 45790349 45880226 45590131
43060085 40990168