[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062029 
OKZ000-KSZ000-062230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK THROUGH SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062029Z - 062230Z

PARTS OF NRN OK INTO SRN KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD EXIST. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED MOVING NWWD THROUGH
NRN OK. RICHER MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ADVECTING NWWD...AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. WV IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS AND FORECAST RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE 4-7
KM LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 90S...CAP SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND SUPPORTS PULSE OR MULTICELL
CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
SINCE THE HAIL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..DIAL.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36349723 35649831 36509872 37539796 37589642 36969570