[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061931 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...CENTRAL WI/NERN IA AND ECENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 061931Z - 062130Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SERN MN/NERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST
ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MN
INTO FAR ECENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY
SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DESPITE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. LIMITED
NATURE OF THE THREAT AND OR ISOLATED COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW OVER THE AREA.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE EXTENDS ALONG A SLOWLY NWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BROOKINGS SD ESEWD TO NEAR VOLK FIELD WI. LIGHT
ELY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 20 KT WNWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MID LEVEL WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
SCENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...IF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP OVER
SWRN MN/ECENTRAL SD...STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY
GREATER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT LARGER HAIL AND
DAMAGING THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

43469635 44119721 44509716 44629664 44489597 44189491
44049403 44039308 44129173 44309028 44238884 43898834
43498866 43318938 43189076 43179288 

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