[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061907 
TXZ000-OKZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX THROUGH S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061907Z - 062100Z

CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON AN MCV WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NW TX
NEAR WICHITA FALLS MOVING EWD. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE SSWWD TO NEAR JUNCTION. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING FROM SRN
OK THROUGH CNTRL TX WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM ABOVE
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...MAX
MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE AS CAP WEAKENS
AND AS ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV INTERCEPTS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIR DOWNSTREAM. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM 15 TO 25
KT BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY
MOVE EWD.

..DIAL.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...

30779843 31709775 32799734 34209769 34659718 34079560
32579554 30449767 

WWWW