[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061809 
NDZ000-SDZ000-062045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061809Z - 062045Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND AROUND 20Z.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER
LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN RAPID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BASED
AROUND 700 MB OVER FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL ND. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER
EAST OVER NCENTRAL/NERN ND...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO POSE A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SINCE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-35 KTS ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER WEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR BY 21Z OVER WRN ND...AS HINTS OF CU ARE SHOWING UP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT IN NERN MT AT 18Z. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/RISES NOTED ON
RECENT SFC ANALYSES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM FAR ERN MT INTO WRN ND OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CINH IS STILL AROUND 100 J/KG AT
18Z...TEMPERATURES ONLY NEED TO REACH THE MID 80S WHILE MAINTAINING
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S TO REMOVE THIS CINH. THUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME GIVEN CURRENT
18Z TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGEST OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON...AS GREATER MID
LEVEL CINH EXISTS SOUTH OF MID LEVEL JET AXIS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45970333 47480382 48990333 48989808 48449744 45939883 

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