[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061657 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-061900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH NE LA THROUGH SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061657Z - 061900Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
PARTS OF LA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM SE LA
NWWD THROUGH E TX. WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN LA. FARTHER NE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL AND SW MS IN A ZONE OF
CLEARING E OF MCV CENTERED OVER SRN AR. WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT LESS INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS... THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN ZONE OF
STRONGER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF MCV FROM NE LA THROUGH SRN MS.

..DIAL.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29699215 29999356 31029366 31969173 32919067 32668952
31068986 29869095 

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