[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061040 
MTZ000-061215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL MT...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061040Z - 061215Z

LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EVOLVING ACROSS N CENTRAL MT
ATTM...BUT NEW WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BARRING MESOSCALE STORM / COLD
POOL ORGANIZATION.

LATEST DATA INDICATES AXIS OF MARGINAL /UNDER 1000 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MT ATTM...AHEAD OF
60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EJECTING EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO
CENTRAL MT.  ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD
SUPPORTS STRONG / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS.  

MINI BOW MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN CASCADE COUNTY ATTM -- WHICH
MOVED 15 MILES S OF TFX /GREAT FALLS MT/ RADAR -- INDICATED 65-PLUS
KT WIND JUST ABOVE THE GROUND FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR -- INDICATIVE OF
INCREASINGLY-STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION.

WITH ELY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET STILL INDICATED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF MT BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ORGANIZED / FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOW EXISTS.  AGAIN...IT APPEARS ATTM
THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MODULATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS HAVE
PERSISTED...THIS REGION BEARS WATCHING.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT GREATER
THAN STORM SCALE...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

48121115 48351049 47990911 47160793 46480854 46390968
46211101 46701140 

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