[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060035 
MTZ000-060230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN AND CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...

VALID 060035Z - 060230Z

BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND
40 KTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 402 THROUGH 03Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

00Z SOUNDING FROM GREAT FALLS INDICATES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 600 MB...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ABOVE THIS
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. NEWD MOTION AROUND 40 KTS WITH THE LINE WILL
CARRY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
WW 402...ERN FERGUS/BLAINE COUNTIES...BY AROUND 03Z. DESPITE DIURNAL
INCREASE IN CINH EXPECTED OVER AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 304...A 60 KT
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY THE MSO VWP SUPPORTING THIS LINE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
INTO NERN MT AFTER 03Z.

ADDITIONAL NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VICINITY OF MSO IN THE WRN PORTIONS
OF WW 402...AS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

46011287 49011363 48990979 45990938 

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