[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060048 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-060145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...401...

VALID 060048Z - 060145Z

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREAS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT
IS THE GREATEST IS BETWEEN TCC AND AMA...FROM 40 WEST OF GAG TO 40 E
OF GAG...AND BETWEEN ICT AND DDC.

THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE MOVING SWD AT 25 KT AND OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONSOLIDATED WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL EXPECTED.  EVENING
SOUNDING AT AMA SHOWED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...MUCAPES NEAR 2300
J/KG...DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.  ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED
AT 02Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

THE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH THOSE STORMS IN THE
EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK WHERE A COLD POOL HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED
ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...STORMS SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY SWD.

OTHER INTENSE STORMS REMAIN BETWEEN DDC AND ICT AND THESE STORMS
HAVE REMAINED CELLULAR...SO LARGE HAIL IS STILL THE MAIN THREAT.
CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THESE STORMS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...
NORTH OF END...AROUND 02Z.

..IMY.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

35620382 36630294 37180120 38129978 38749830 37969749
36709894 35310296 

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