[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052200 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN TX...SWRN AR AND SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052200Z - 052300Z

...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER ACROSS NERN TX
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR.
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

VSBY SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
LOCATED NEAR ACT.  STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE FROM 40 N OF DAL TO 40 NW TYR.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING
IN MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.  IF STORMS MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN AR AND
SERN OK...STORMS MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SWD WITHIN CLEAR SLOT FROM
TYR SWD TOWARD CLL/LFK...THREAT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

..IMY.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

31349653 32649668 33689648 34309562 34299486 34189390
31819410 31209497 

WWWW