[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052150 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN/NCENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 052150Z - 052345Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG-ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECENTRAL
SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG A TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN NEB. WEAK LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER WCENTRAL MN/ECENTRAL SD AHEAD
OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SWD AROUND 15 KTS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDED FROM SERN
SD INTO SWRN MN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...25 KTS PER WOOD LAKE AND NELEIGH PROFILERS...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA...AIRMASS REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING MCV AND THUS SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY
TO BE MAINTAINED VERY FAR SOUTH INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

42179751 42309909 42879947 43939899 44769820 45189594
45129505 44559476 43159495 41929511 

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