[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052114 
TXZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052114Z - 052315Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN MCV AND
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SCENTRAL/SERN TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT ISOLATED
NATURE OF A SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE HOU METRO AREA WWD TO JUST NORTH OF SAT. HIGH INSTABILITY
EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG.
MODEST MID LEVEL 25 KT NWLY WIND FIELDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TWO
MCVS...ONE OVER SERN TX AND THE OTHER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FORCING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HILL COUNTY MCV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28319667 28609834 29529997 30009940 29949866 29779696
29569454 29239479