[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052047 
WIZ000-MNZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 052047Z - 052245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT OVER ECENTRAL MN
INCLUDING THE MSP METRO AREA. THE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD INTO NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO ISO SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF THE
ALEXANDRIA AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ECENTRAL MN ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM WCENTRAL 
MN AND AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE ALONG A LEADING TROUGH AXIS FROM WRIGHT COUNTY MN EWD INTO
POLK COUNTY WI AS 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES
ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AT BEST
OVER THE AREA...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN MN/ND WILL AID IN SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

44839347 45439441 46079430 46159284 46049179 45729136
45179104