[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052028 
TXZ000-052230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052028Z - 052230Z

AREA OF W TX BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND IS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE 
MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A N-S LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND ON A SUBTLE BOUNDARY. TRENDS IN SURFACE DATA
SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND FLOW VEERING TO WLY AS
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENCOURAGES DEEP MIXING ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SHARPENING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY AS IT TAKES ON DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM WITH DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY LIMITED TO AOB 30
KT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SHARPENING BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

..DIAL.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

33910022 32660010 31620061 31190105 31330185 32990198
33980203