[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051959 
MNZ000-NDZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/FAR NERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051959Z - 052130Z

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN MN/NERN ND. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
ANTICIPATED SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT
INTO FAR NERN ND AND NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH
35-40 KTS AT 500 MB OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND ONLY MODEST
CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

47629727 48039755 48979763 49039568 48369232 47609256
47629626 

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